After returning to the Vatican, the Pope has many decisions to make. Will charges be filed against Rupnik or not?

In the height of summer in Rome, the Vatican Curia is thinned out in terms of personnel. This is one of the reasons why major decisions by the new Pope are likely to take some time. Before that, the World Youth Day on the first weekend of August and another short stay in Castel Gandolfo around the Assumption of Mary are also scheduled. Nevertheless, an "autumn of decisions" is already emerging.

After his election, Leo XIV confirmed the heads of all important Curia authorities only "until further notice." He is expected to make some changes in the foreseeable future. The name most frequently mentioned is that of the "theological pioneer" under Pope Francis, Cardinal Victor Fernandez (63). Even observers who hope for a continuation of the openings and reforms from the Francis era are skeptical whether Fernandez will remain head of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith for much longer.

The new Pope has repeatedly emphasized that he sees the restoration of the Church's internal unity as his most urgent task. And that is precisely not what the name Fernandez stands for. Ever since his push for the blessing of homosexuals provoked the African bishops to revolt against the Pope's line, Fernandez has been considered a lost cause. He also caused heated feelings at the World Synod with clumsy communication on the issue of women's ordination.

Nevertheless, Leo could keep the Argentinian in office for a while longer – much like Francis did with Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller. Only after four years did the then Pope part ways with the conservative guardian of the faith, citing the expiration of his five-year term. Regardless of when Leo XIV separates from Fernandez, no one expects him to repeat his predecessor's mistake of sidelining the Prefect of the Doctrine of the Faith – from which he could then intervene unchecked in church debates with his own statements.

The situation is different for two cardinals who have already turned 75. In their case, age-related retirement would be possible without much fanfare. One of them, the Englishman Arthur Roche, as head of the Dicastery for Liturgy, is just as much of a red rag to some conservatives as Fernandez. In their eyes, Roche is considered the spiritual father of the decree "Traditionis custodes," with which Pope Francis drastically restricted the possibilities for celebrating the old Latin Mass in 2021. The minority protesting against this is relatively small. But the liturgical prefect's actions have not had a unifying effect, so he is likely to be replaced soon.

The situation is different with 75-year-old Cardinal Kurt Koch. The Swiss is the last German-speaking person to head a Vatican authority. For 15 years, Cardinal Walter Kasper's successor has been responsible for dialogue with the other churches and with Judaism – and in this role, he has always been an impeccable bridge-builder. Observers assume that Koch will remain in office at least until the end of the year due to important symbolic events: At the end of October, the Vatican will celebrate the 60th anniversary of the important conciliar declaration "Nostra Aetate" with Jewish partners. At the end of November, the 1700th anniversary of the ecumenical Council of Nicaea will be celebrated. And then comes the commemoration of the cancellation of the mutual excommunication between Catholics and Orthodox on December 7, 1965.

Pope Leo XIV, however, has little time at the office he himself headed until his election as Pope: He will soon have to fill the position of head of the important Dicastery of Bishops, which – with the exception of Africa and Asia – controls church personnel policy worldwide. It is considered likely that he will promote one of his former colleagues within the office.

Speculation about a possible new Cardinal Secretary of State has subsided. Pietro Parolin (70) appears to be firmly in the saddle – after initially being considered the favorite at the conclave in early May. It's possible that Leo XIV is now rewarding the former favorite for stepping aside in his favor. In any case, the number one and number two in the Vatican are currently harmonizing more closely than was rarely the case during the previous pontificate.

Back then, Pope Francis set the tone and pace with often undiplomatic interviews. In foreign policy, he broke china, which the Secretary of State had to repair. Leo and Parolin were different: In the recent Gaza crisis following the shelling of the Catholic parish there by Israeli troops, the two (in conjunction with Cardinal Pizzaballa on site) passed the ball to each other with phone calls, appeals, and interviews, ultimately putting moral pressure on Israel. The whole thing went smoothly, even though both were on vacation – the Pope in Castel Gandolfo and Parolin in Trentino. Parolin and his boss are also apparently working together seamlessly in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. With a coordinated diplomatic charm offensive, they credibly brought the Vatican into play as a possible venue for peace negotiations.

Foreign Travel

So far, only one foreign trip by the new Pope is considered certain: Following the invitation of Patriarch Bartholomew and President Erdogan, he will likely travel to Turkey at the end of November. The stops mentioned include the site of the Council of Nicaea 1,700 years ago, the Patriarch's seat in Istanbul, the Marian shrine of Ephesus, and the capital Ankara.

A second, predominantly Muslim country is also emerging as a possible destination. As he himself has indicated, the Pope, who is a member of the Augustinian Order, intends to visit the region in North Africa where Saint Augustine served as bishop around 1,600 years ago. Furthermore, Leo XIV is expected to travel to Peru, where he spent several years first as a missionary and later as a bishop. According to frequent speculation, he could combine this trip with detours to Argentina and Uruguay. Pope Francis, who is originally from Argentina, had already wanted to visit both countries, but refrained from doing so due to possible domestic political upheavals in his homeland.

It remains uncertain whether Leo XIV understands his role as a unifier in the Catholic Church, which is crisscrossed by conflict lines, to travel to precisely those countries where such conflicts are particularly virulent. In that case, he would no longer prefer to travel "to the fringes" of the Catholic world church, as his predecessor Francis did, but would deliberately visit countries such as France, Germany, or his native USA.

Court Proceedings

Leo XIV inherited several pending canon law proceedings from his predecessor. Among the most well-known is the appeal case involving Cardinal Angelo Becciu (77). He and several alleged accomplices were sentenced to prison terms, some of them severe, by a Vatican court in December 2023 following a loss-making real estate speculation venture in London. Becciu has filed an appeal.

Whether the cardinal would have been eligible to vote in the conclave in early May was never fully clarified; ultimately, he declined to participate – after being promised a comprehensive review of his case. It remains to be seen whether Pope Leo XIV will resolve the matter with a pardon or wait for the next round of legal proceedings.

No less delicate is the canon law proceedings involving the Slovenian artist and former Jesuit priest Marko Rupnik, whom several nuns have accused of spiritual and sexual abuse. Since most of the accusations against Rupnik are not punishable under canon law, the whole thing could fizzle out without charges being filed. However, Leo XIV could also impose extrajudicial sanctions against Rupnik in this case. In fact, the artist's works were removed from Vatican media shortly after the change of ontificate.

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