In 10-20 years, Catholicism will cease to exist in France, the oldest daughter of the Church. The clock is ticking for modernism.
The steady decline of French Catholicism (in its modernist form. Traditional Catholicism, in contrast, will survive and grow)
Insee's Trajectories and Origins survey, known as TEO 2, is based on data from 2019-2020, released in April. The comparison with the data from TEO 1 from 2007-2008 is instructive:
things have been changing very rapidly over the last twelve years.
There has been a dramatic growth in evangelical Protestants.
The increase in the number of registered non-religionists continues, from 45% to 53%.
Catholicism continues to decline from 43% to 25%, almost halving in twelve years. The COVID crisis and the "sexual abuse" crisis are not to blame. Above all, there is no stabilisation, but a continuous decline, which seems inexorable.
The number of Muslims has increased from 8% to 11%. 26% of women wear the veil.
Judaism is becoming more and more identity-based (what do the - Catholic - enemies of identity think?). It is even the most "identity-oriented" religion in France, if we are to believe the survey.
Finally, Buddhism remains stable, at 0.5% of the French.
Immigration plays an increasing role, because it remains massive (more than 10% of immigrants).
The ability to transmit beliefs to the next generation is linked to the identity dimension of the religion and to fervour. The best is that of Islam (91%), the worst that of Catholicism (67%), but that of the evangelicals (69%) is closer to the latter than to the former.
The effectiveness of proselytism is mainly evangelical, as Islam tends to specialise in the conversion of identity of populations of Muslim origin.
In 1872, in the last public census to officially include a religious heading, more than 97% of French people answered that they were Roman Catholics, and this was still practically the case in the early 1960s. In TEO 2, only 25% said so.
Go figure: while the number of Catholics in France is in free fall, the Notre-Dame de Chrétienté pilgrimage is experiencing constant growth, to such an extent that this year, for both logistical reasons (lengthening of the pilgrim column, places on the bivouacs) and security reasons, the association had to close registrations more than a week before the start of the pilgrimage. It would be very useful for the Episcopate to look closely at this paradox.
Cathcon: The Pope is an old modernist in a hurry. It will not work.
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