Archbishop Aguer, predecessor of Cardinal Fernandez in La Plata and no Francis sympathiser, speaks out on the coming demographic winter
More babies
Sociological insight points to a grave danger threatening Argentina: demographic winter. Births in our country fell from 777,012 in 2014 to 460,902 in 2023; the birth rate dropped, in those years, from 18.2 per thousand to 9.9 per thousand. This population crisis is due to a set of factors: the decline in marriage, marriages and first births at a later age, the decline in birth and fertility rates, and the consequent aging of the population. These data reveal a political problem: "to govern is to populate." The expression is attributed to Juan Bautista Alberdi, but he was referring to immigration. If we wanted to continue accepting it and attributing any value to it, it would have to be translated: "to govern is to ensure that more babies are born." This is not easy, given that the meaning of family has changed, courtship has become early cohabitation, and the use of contraception has become widespread; even the memory of the encyclical Humanae Vitae has been lost.
Faced with this grave situation, the Argentine bishops are silent. They seem to live, as usual, in the stratosphere. Their silence is deafening. Accustomed to their "centrist extremism," they eschew any firmness on issues of life and family, considering them "right-wing." Theirs is "social." And so it goes. Not even the closure of kindergartens, nurseries, and maternity wards, which is exploding right in front of their eyes, makes them react.
The danger of demographic winter threatens many countries. In Europe, three out of four households—as has just been revealed—are childless. Prophetically, Saint John Paul II, forty years ago, said that "the Europe of the 21st century will be Christian or it will not exist." The truth is, it will not; rather, it will be Muslim. In the United States, the fertility rate has reached an all-time low. This is a great country, admirable for many reasons, beginning with its extension across a strip of America, stretching from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Also because there, the wheat and the weeds grow equally. The spread of contraception and abortion, no longer as bloody as they once were, is undeniable. But a "pronatalist" community has recently emerged, promoting larger families. "In this room, we are going to fix the declining birth rate," said dating app entrepreneur Amanda Bradford in the conference room of a hotel in Austin, Texas. She expressed concern about how to persuade Americans, specifically American women, of the advisability of having more children. It is interesting to note that other speakers were planned to participate, according to economist Bryan Capland, a father of four, "but they all became pregnant."
The religious aspect of the issue should not be overlooked. The Creator's mandate is expressed at the beginning of the Book of Genesis: So God created man in his own image; he created him in the image of God; he created them male and female. And he blessed them, saying to them, "Be fruitful, multiply, fill the earth and subdue it" (Gen 1:27-28).
The aforementioned encyclical of Paul VI brings together arguments of natural reason and the enduring doctrine of the Church. Grace and sin illuminate or obscure the conduct of men and women.
+ Héctor Aguer
Archbishop Emeritus of La Plata.
Buenos Aires, Wednesday, July 9, 2025.
Our Lady of Itatí.
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