Path of Cardinal Prevost to the Papacy

Information has already begun to emerge about the progress of the Conclave. An article in Corriere della Sera, dated May 1st, before the Conclave began, revealed that American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, Prefect of the Dicastery for Bishops, had visited Cardinal Burke (who had become a pariah under Francis, who had stripped him of his apartment, his salary, and all official duties) for a highly secret summit.

In an article dated May 9th, the day after the election, Il Tempo wrote that Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost was not supported by organised movements, from Opus Dei to Sant'Egidio. It was Cardinal Giuseppe Versaldi, a non-elector (he was born in 1943), an Italian, appointed bishop and then cardinal by Benedict XVI, former Prefect of the Congregation for Catholic Education, a figure of balance and governance, who over the years managed to build a network of protection and credibility around Prévost. It was he who silently brought him to the attention of the Italian episcopate, guaranteed his authority in the palaces, and promoted him as a serious, spiritual, and reliable alternative to the diplomatic centralism embodied by Pietro Parolin, who found himself facing a solid wall of American, African, and South American cardinals, confirming the old Roman adage: "He who enters the Conclave as Pope leaves it as Cardinal."

Bishop Versaldi was not only a sponsor, but a true director of Prévost's rise. And this is where the aforementioned American Cardinal Raymond Leo (well, well, I mean) Burke comes in. Burke, who appreciated Prévost's liturgical sensitivity and doctrinal clarity, recognized in him a sober and orthodox alternative to the excesses of recent years. His preference, shared by other Americans such as Cardinals Sean O'Malley and Joseph Tobin, helped break the deadlock between those nostalgic for the "great return" and those in favor of the "great reversal." Prévost, a staunch pacifist and peacemaker who engages in dialogue, endowed with a true missionary spirit, represented the third way.

A close-knit team has now gathered around him. First and foremost, Monsignor Luis Marín de San Martín, a Spanish Augustinian bishop, undersecretary of the Synod and the now certain successor to the much-discussed Edgar Peña Parra in the role of substitute for general affairs. He would become the new number two in the Secretariat of State, not out of ambition but out of spiritual coherence and ecclesial vision. Then came figures such as Monsignor Fabio Fabene, former secretary of the Dicastery for Bishops; Ilson de Jesus Montanari of Brazil, an expert on Latin America; Sister Nathalie Becquart, a point of balance between synodality and governance (Cathcon:  no wonder she outrageosuly called Pope Leo "Our Pope" when she met him after the Conclave - too ambitious by half in matters that should be none of her concern and God forbid she would attempt to run the show); and Father Alejandro Moral Antón, Prior General of the Augustinians, guardian of the charism and a voice heard in the most delicate moments of discernment. Alongside them, theologians such as Alberto Royo Mejía and canonists such as Jesuit Father Gianfranco Ghirlanda provided Prévost with the tools to transform his Synodal vision into operational guidelines. The signal was clear: this was not a power struggle, but a spiritual reconfiguration. Leo XIV will not begin his pontificate with purges, but with gestures of thoughtful continuity. Parolin remains, for now. But it is clear that the center of gravity will shift, and with the arrival of Luis Marín de San Martín as operational head of the Secretariat of State, a new season will begin. The Augustinians, who do not form a lobby in the traditional sense of the term, are becoming a spiritual current of government: authoritarian because rooted in an ancient tradition, strong not because of wealth—which, in many cases, no longer exists—but because of coherence. It is well known that the Order of Saint Augustine is not navigating in abundant waters today: monasteries are closed or abandoned on the other side of the world, vocations are rare, and works rely on the sacrifice of a few. Yet it is precisely in material poverty and decentralization that the Order has rediscovered its prophetic vocation.

Their true "capital" today is thought, prayer, and sobriety. The heart of this renaissance is the Augustinian College in Rome, which is not just a residence, but a theological crossroads, a point of connection between the peripheries of the Order and the Curia. It is here that the protagonists of this ecclesial phase—studying, living, discerning—passed: from Prevost to Marín, from Moral Antón to so many formators of the new generations. If Francis spoke of an "outgoing Church," Leo XIV seems to desire a "Church of inner listening," capable of speaking strong words without shouting, of making decisions without violence, of walking without calculation. A Church that, as Saint Augustine would say, seeks God not in the noise of the world, but in the truth of the heart. Not alone, all together. "In necessariis unitas, in dubiis libertas, in omnibus caritas."

In Le Figaro, Jean-François Colosimo, general director of Éditions du Cerf, reveals that in the days leading up to the conclave, the eminent Italian Vatican expert Giovanni Maria Vian said that Cardinal Prevost should be seen as the absolute outsider, destined to become the favorite in the event of a neutralization among the leading "papabili." As the doors closed, Rome was buzzing with his name.

According to Italian sources, Cardinals Parolin and Tagle neutralized each other in the first rounds, favoring the rise of Cardinal Prévost, who had already received several dozen votes, and then his election in the fourth round. According to some accounts, Parolin, Tagle, and Ërdo entered the race with several dozen votes, thus eliminating the other "papabile." Zuppi, Aveline, and Prevost also reportedly received votes. According to Il Giornale, the Archbishop of New York, Cardinal Timothy Dolan, played the kingmaker, attracting voters from North and South America, mostly English-speaking, or those linked to the Commonwealth, from South Africa to India to Tonga. Parolin had a certain number of votes, between forty and fifty according to sources, but not enough to reach 89. From the first round of voting, Prévost garnered a lot of support. The Bergoglians presented themselves divided into several groups and were unable to propose an alternative. It may be, as the Ansa news agency notes, that the secret and controversial agreement reached with the Beijing government weighed on Parolin. Rumor has it that the Cardinal of Vicenza reached an agreement with the Filipino Luis Tagle. But in reality, the agreement did not hold, and the votes shifted to Prévost.

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