Ebb and flow of the Conclave. The Italian disappointment.

The favorite Parolin left without the votes from Africa and Asia. Pre-conclave decisive and the "direction" of Dolan.

The Secretary of State entered with a package of 40-50 votes, but half the world was looking elsewhere. The American conservative cardinal, the true kingmaker

The Italian disappointment. The favorite Parolin left without the votes from Africa and Asia. Pre-conclave decisive and the "direction" of Dolan

The whole world was looking at the Secretary of State. And at the party of Italian cardinals. The time factor: Robert Prevost has entered the pope-toto of these days, but always in the rear. Up until yesterday evening there was always him: Pietro Parolin. Parolin who to his childhood friend Roberto Ambrosi, an innkeeper in Marostica, had described his "turmoil", as told by Francesco Boezi in Il Giornale.

And that word, "disturbance," had been understood as a premonition. It didn't go that way. Parolin is the big loser, even if it's hard to say how the change that few expected came about. Some hypothesize that Prevost had already come to light during the general congregations, the meetings between the cardinals who occupied the sacred college after Francis' funeral. It's likely that this analysis has elements of truth. After all, the pre-conclave is always of great importance. Even more so in this round, with many cardinals who barely knew the names of their colleagues.

Decisive nuances. Like the activism of the Archbishop of New York Timothy Dolan who played the kingmaker, immediately focusing on that very atypical figure, at the crossroads of different cultures: a father with French and Italian origins, a Spanish mother. And then the missionary dimension, but without losing his roots in the USA.

Dolan, according to many observers, managed to attract voters from North and South America, especially English-speaking voters, or rather those linked to the Commonwealth, in short the old British Empire, from South Africa to India and the Tonga Islands.

Parolin had a certain amount of votes, it is said between forty and fifty, in any case not enough to reach the quorum. The problem is that in the first vote it was discovered that another candidate, Prevost, had captured many votes in the shadows. The Bergoglians presented themselves divided into different groups and were unable to propose an alternative: for example the Frenchman, also highly rated, Jean-Marc Aveline or the Maltese Mario Grech.

Pierbattista Pizzaballa, coming from Jerusalem, one of the most overheated areas on earth, and therefore inevitably judged too political, was also offside.

It is impossible to know what happened in the Sistine Chapel. After the first vote, something must have clicked among the cardinals, particularly the African and Asian ones.

They must have seen in Prevost, who is also highly esteemed in Rome, not the leading exponent of the world's leading power, but the best expression of a West that does not bask in the mirror but is capable of launching itself beyond its limits.

It may also be, as the Ansa agency noted, that Parolin was weighed down by the secret and controversial agreement reached with the Beijing government.

Something went wrong, the most likely candidate left the conclave, according to tradition, exactly as he had entered.

The rumors that are chasing each other say that the cardinal from Vicenza had reached an agreement, a sort of ticket, with the Filipino Luis Tagle. Another almost favorite on the eve.

But when put to the test, the agreement did not hold up. And Robert Prevost became the Pope of the First World voted by the cardinals of the Third World.

A political masterpiece, but also a sign of the extraordinary unpredictability of the Spirit that blows where it wants. Disrupting all the predictions.

And moving away in time the dream of bringing an Italian back - Parolin, but maybe also Pizzaballa or Zuppi - to St. Peter's. Something similar to what happened in 2013: then it seemed done for Angelo Scola, but Bergoglio appeared.

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